Thursday, November 11, 2010

AONE Update

AONE has been a huge laggard in our portfolio- it missed earnings estimates yesterday and dropped around 12%.  However, there's a glimmer of hope on the horizon for this electric motor manufacturer: GE plans to purchase 25,000 electric vehicles for it's fleet by 2015, starting with 12,000 2011 Chevy Volts.

AONE is trading at $8.54/share, up 0.35% since the open.

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

QE2 Update..Exit Strategy?

Related stocks: GG, SLW

QE2 has driven our gold and silver plays through the roof.
Since our respective purchases about three weeks ago, we've seen capital gains of 17% for Goldcorp (GG) and 37% Silver Wheaton (SLW).

Do these companies still have room to run?  Or is it time to get out before the bubble bursts?

As of 11/9/10, gold is trading at $1,420 and silver is trading at $28

Monday, November 8, 2010

China and Oil

Related Stocks: ConocoPhillips (COP)

The price of oil reached a new two-year high Friday, November 5, closing at $86.85 a barrel, up 6.7% for the week. Today, it is up yet again, although only by a slight margin. Analyst predict the price of oil will not slow and will rise above $100 a barrel by next year.
Much of the increase in oil demand stems from China, the world's second largest economy behind the U.S. China has seemed to pull out of the global recession faster than many developed nations and is on track for another year of double digit growth. Much of the reason for the increase in oil demand stems for car sales. Between August and September, car sales rose 19%. China's oil reserves are unable to keep up and will be looking to buy more. Hopefully this demand will fuel an increase in the price of oil. Historically, the stock price of COP has correlated closely with the price of oil.

Source: Wall Street Journal

Friday, November 5, 2010

GG GOLD

Related stocks: GG

As of late, the U.S. dollar has been severely oversold due to the moribund economy. Instead, investors are looking to precious metals including gold.
Steve Halpern of TheStockAdvisors.com stated,

"If I were to buy a gold stock without regard to price, it would be Goldcorp (GG). Recently, it jumped sharply higher due to an excellent record cash flow, a four-fold increase in earnings, and a 100% dividend increase. "

However, he also predicts that the price of gold will retreat to about $1,150. We will see how this affects GG's performance.

Thursday, November 4, 2010

GG's bid for Andean

This morning, Goldcorp (GG) placed a bid to acquire Andean Resources (ASX:AND, TSX:AND) for $3.4B, which values AND's gold reserves at $1,619/oz.

Depending on how investors see this bullish price (are they grossly overpaying?), GG's price could suffer.

Gold's trading at ~$1,380
GG is up ~3.0% since the open

Source:
Seeking Alpha

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Price of Oil

Related Stocks: COP


Investors whose stock and related plays hinge on the price of commodities would be wise to pay close attention to one, key commodity, oil, which popped up $1.52 Monday to $82.95 per barrel.

Investors should also note the primary factor analysts' cited in oil's rise: word of better-than-expected manufacturing sector growth in October in China.

Further, the above refrain is something U.S. investors should get used to: stronger growth in emerging markets abroad, higher commodity costs here.

True, while a myriad of domestic factors are capable of pushing oil and other key commodity prices higher, emerging markets, with their stronger-growth economies and expanding workforces, have the capacity to boost commodity consumption, and by extension, commodity prices, in a big way.

Market/Economic Analysis:
Among other investments, rising oil prices benefit integrated oil companies, and the currencies of countries who are net oil exporters, including Canada, the United Kingdom, and Russia. However, rising oil prices hurt companies that use a lot of oil, including airlines and delivery companies, and hurt the currencies of countries who are net oil importers, the United States being a prime example. Rising oil prices also weigh on GDP growth in these countries and also increase the cost of tanker-transported goods. The price of oil has traded in $70-80 range for the last six months.

The bullish case for oil? Even though oil has had trouble closing above $85 recently, a stronger Chinese industrial sector combined with a second stage of quantitative easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve designed to boost U.S. GDP growth, would likely send oil higher.

The bearish case? If the global economy experiences a third-wave of the financial crisis in Europe, the U.S. or Asia, that would likely weigh on global GDP growth, and crude's price would decline.